Hello, and welcome back to The Kable. Apologies for the break last week. We’ve been reporting so diligently on Ebola in the Congo we thought us taking a break would offer some respite from the outbreak as well. But nope.
The outbreak has now affected 63 health zones with a case fatality rate of 48.1%, with 7,890 cases and 3,799 deaths, as per the latest update. The speed with which the outbreak was growing has certainly come down but worryingly it looks like Nord-Kivu is now becoming the new hot spot. In great news, on the sidelines of the UNGA, G20+ countries pledged an additional $700 million, bringing the total pledges raised for this outbreak to nearly $3 billion.
Elsewhere, Uganda and South Sudan, countries most likely to be impacted by the ongoing Ebola outbreak in DRC, have signed a deal to strengthen cross-border outbreak response.
There’s a whole lot of other disease afoot across Africa otherwise too. In Madagascar, 36 people have died in two municipalities, maybe due to measles, maybe malaria. In Ghana, a yellow fever outbreak among the Fulbe nomadic community in Sissala East has already claimed 21 lives. In South Africa, mpox is beginning to make its way back up the charts again. South Africa is also still in the middle of its largest bovine foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic ever, and authorities are now asking private companies to start making the vaccine for it.
In Sudan, a mystery illness is affecting children in North Darfur. Of course, illness is probably the least of Sudan’s concerns at the moment. The world’s largest- and longest-running internal displacement crisis is well past critical point now. WFP and IOM are both on record saying humanitarian relief is not meeting needs even now and now 5 million people are returning to homes and lands ravaged by conflict, and climate. Amid all of this, the great imperialist of our times is looking to force a peace pact on the people of Sudan. And as has been their wont, regime change is their solution because the US has always only wanted what is best for the world.
The world, minus Zimbabwe this week. Because Zimbabwe didn’t want to sign up for the Americaworld first bilateral health deal, the US is pulling all health funding.
Also, last week, yet again, people met to discuss the Pandemic Pact. We can predict the outcome of these talks already but we will know for sure a little while after you read this.
The Africa CDC can also predict the outcome of these talks. Which is why they’re becoming even more strident in their call to make vaccines locally.
Earlier this week, the Global Fund released its 2026 results report, which makes for interesting reading. In the 20+ years the fund has been active, it has brought the combined death rate from AIDS, TB and malaria down by 65% in the countries it works in.
In Palestine, a new school year has begun, and it is the fourth consecutive year that Palestinian kids will see their learning interrupted. By Israel. Because destroying olive trees before harvest and polluting the air itself isn’t evil enough. Oh, and wheelchairs are weapons. Which is why hundreds of wheelchairs, donated by charities in Australia for children in Gaza, are still stuck in Jordan. Because Israel won’t let them in. Just to make things a little more holistic, Israel also killed a few UN staffers, while continuing its reign of terror in Lebanon.
In somewhat good news, CEPI received a new $240 million commitment from Ethiopia, Norway and the UK. But the Global Education Fund’s replenishment closed with less than half of the $5 billion it was looking to raise.
But AI will save the day, right? Especially with Bill Gates at the helm? What? You think AI won’t save the day? Here, Claude is discovering gene editing mechanisms that humans couldn’t find in 10,000 years. Okay, so maybe gene editing may not be possible. Which means maybe it might be. Yay.
In better news, MPP has signed sublicense agreements with 11 manufacturers in India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Uganda, Ukraine, and Vietnam to make generic versions of Roche’s antiviral flu drug, baloxavir marboxil.
And finally, in actual good news, intrepid explorers have discovered a brand new species of cats, the first such discovery in over 100 years. We can never have too many cats.
Stories Of The Week
Don’t you know that you’re toxic? The UN released a new report last week and the beginning of the headline - “Highly persistent toxic waste“ - might have made you believe it was about Israel. But it wasn’t. It was about poorly managed toxic chemicals and hazardous waste which threaten “many, if not all, human rights.” Culprit number one? Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), the so-called “forever chemicals”. Used in pretty much everything everywhere all at once. PFAS can persist in the environment for centuries and have been linked to harm to hormone, liver and immune function; they have also been detected in umbilical cord blood and breast milk. And yes, the burden of this too is unevenly distributed. Workers, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and marginalised communities are often exposed most heavily, even though much PFAS production is concentrated in industrialised countries. The report was presented by the UN’s new Special Rapporteur on toxics and human rights who wants an urgent ban on all non-essential uses of PFAS. And also for prevention to take precedence over attempting to clean up contamination after it has occurred. Heh.
(UN)
And then there were 451,000 less. Extreme heat associated with this year’s “super” El Niño could cause as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, according to University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab projections. The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44% compared with normal years. Nigeria alone could record 31,400 excess heat deaths between September and February, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. The Sahel, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, could see 66,800 additional deaths, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could record 19,400 combined. Thankfully, the researchers also offered a peek beyond this 6-month forecast. And they said India and Pakistan will see an uptick in heat-related deaths as summer really kicks in.
(Climate Impact Lab)
Please sir, may I have some more? Well no. Not if you’re a child in East or Southern Africa. Because Save the Children says about eight million children in these regions could face acute hunger by early 2027, up 30%, with the same El Niño compounding existing food insecurity. Across Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda and Kenya, the number of people facing crisis-level hunger or worse is projected to rise from 12.6 million to 16.4 million by March 2027. Six million children in these countries already face severe food shortages, while Somalia is also considered at risk from El Niño-related flooding.
Uganda could have 4.4 million people facing crisis-level hunger or worse, up 22%, with the increase exceeding 40% in Karamoja. Zambia faces the sharpest deterioration, up 80% to more than 1.2 million people, while Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi are projected to see increases of 75%, 55% and 35% respectively. In Madagascar, 502,000 children under five — one in 10 — are expected to suffer acute malnutrition between May 2026 and April 2027, including 78,000 with severe acute malnutrition.
(Save the Children)
The silver lining. With heat and starvation killing people, what could the silver lining be, you ask? Well, the thing is, if people are dying of heat and hunger, they’re less likely to fall ill. Which is great because a new study says disease outbreaks are killing healthcare workers in the tens of thousands every year. The study draws on 30 years of data from 194 countries and territories. And obviously, low- and lower-middle-income countries were disproportionately affected. Niger recorded the highest estimated losses relative to the size of its health workforce, at 57 per 10,000, followed by Somalia at 44 and Ethiopia at 37. India had the largest estimated loss in absolute terms, at around 7,900 health workers a year.
Nurses and midwives accounted for the largest share of the estimated global losses, at 6,125 annually, followed by aides and emergency medical workers at 3,162 and doctors at 1,478. The study found that each additional epidemic was followed by a decline in health worker density the following year, reflecting deaths, disability, staff departures and wider disruption to health systems. The researchers said stronger disease surveillance, higher vaccination coverage and measures to protect and retain health workers could reduce the pressure, particularly in countries where staffing is already stretched.
(PLOS Medicine)
Bottom line
Who needs a Planet B? Not us, for sure. Because we’re already well on course to destroy this one. Seven of the nine planetary boundaries that regulate the stability and resilience of Earth have now been breached, according to the 2026 Planetary Health Check. Climate change, ocean acidification, biosphere integrity, freshwater change, land-system change, disruption of nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and the introduction of novel entities such as synthetic chemicals and plastics. All seven are now at their highest recorded levels, increasing the risk of large-scale and potentially irreversible environmental change. Only stratospheric ozone depletion and atmospheric aerosol loading remain within the global safe operating space. But don’t worry, aerosol pollution has already reached unsafe levels in some regions.
Human activity has sharply increased nitrogen and phosphorus flows, largely through fertiliser use, contributing to algal blooms and oxygen-depleted aquatic dead zones. PFAS, microplastics and other manufactured substances are meanwhile entering the environment faster than many can be adequately tested, monitored or regulated, while land conversion, resource exploitation and invasive species continue to erode biodiversity. The report does say reversing these worsening trends is still possible, but action within this decade is critical. But we need data centres for AI and we need mines and we need more fossil fuel. So maybe, hold on till 2040 or so?
(2026 Planetary Health Check)
What, men, dinosaurs? Why couldn’t you hide? Such mighty creatures, and you had to go and succumb to an asteroid, only to become fuel to hasten the end of human life millennia later. Yeah, talking to you, T rex. Because a study in PLOS Climate says historical emissions linked to 178 of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal and cement producers will continue contributing to global warming for centuries. And it’s all your fault. These companies and state-owned producers tracked by the Carbon Majors database have generated more than 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent since 1854, with half of those emissions produced after 1986.
Researchers modelled the global climate through to 2500 under different future emissions pathways, comparing scenarios with and without the Carbon Majors’ historical emissions through 2024. Their past emissions continued to raise global temperatures under every scenario and could increase the likelihood and severity of future extreme weather. Under lower-emissions pathways, historical Carbon Majors emissions account for a larger proportion of total warming; under higher-emissions pathways, future emissions make up a greater share, but the absolute warming attributable to past emissions remains broadly similar.
Even if, by some miracle, global emissions fall to near zero, reversing the current warming trend could take decades and returning temperatures towards pre-industrial levels could take centuries.
(PLOS Climate)
Long reads
What to expect when you’re expecting. El Niño has featured a few times already this week. So here it is once again. With maps as well. More rain. More heat. More snow. Pretty much more of everything you didn’t need.
(Nature, Nature)
Make in Africa? How? More than half of the continent has no reliable electric supply. And 41% either has no connection or have a connection that never works. How can you power the economic engine when you have no power?
(Afrobarometer)
And finally, in the latest issue of Linchpin Magazine, meet Haşim, a wearer of many hats - woodworker, photographer, traveller, husband, father, chairman of the International Confederation of Contamination Control Societies, and vice president of innovation at LWS (Lighthouse Worldwide Solutions), and most importantly, as long-term readers of The Kable will attest to, coffee connoisseur.